Residents, local officials prepare for coming hurricanes

By David McRaney
After Katrina Newswire

HATTIESBURG —The roofers left Louise Cavanaugh's lawn crisscrossed with tire tracks and her porch littered with empty soda cans.

But it was a fair trade for a fresh new roof on both her home and garage. Eight months have passed since Katrina, and for most of that time a blue tarp seemed good enough.

“I had estimates go as high as $12,000 to fix it,” said Cavanaugh, who held out for months while scores of carpetbaggers placed offers at her door. “I finally convinced my insurance company to help me a little, and I found a team of roofers I could trust.”

Cavanaugh, like many Hattiesburg residents, feels like she is just now getting her house and mind back in order after the worst disaster to plow through the Pine Belt since the Civil War.

Most of the stumps are ground down, the shattered trees have been hauled away and the FEMA tarps have been replaced by fresh new shingles - just in time for the 2006 hurricane season.

On June 1, about a month from now, the next Atlantic hurricane season will begin, and experts are already predicting a nasty batch of storms.

Dr. William Gray with Colorado State University said the CSU Tropical Meteorology Project has made hurricane season forecasts for 23 years. His team has become rather adept at predicting the weather in that time, and they say while this year won't match last year, people should prepare.

According to 53 years worth of data collected by the group and the latest advances in climatology, 2006 will likely produce 17 named storms and nine hurricanes - of which five will be intense. In short, it's going to be a busy, above-average season once again.

“The probability of U.S. major hurricane landfall is estimated to be about 55 percent above the long-period average,” said Gray in a press release. “We expect Atlantic basin Net Tropical Cyclone activity in 2006 to be about 195 percent of the long-term average.”

According to the project, there is a 64 percent chance the U.S. east coast will be hit, and a 47 percent chance a major hurricane will directly strike the Gulf of Mexico Coast.

Gray added, “We believe that 2006 will be a very active season in the Atlantic basin.”

The official word from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration will be released on May 22, and most experts believe it will offer a similar prediction. And, as National Hurricane Center Director Max Mayfield said, we can expect this kind of activity for the next 10 to 20 years.

Hattiesburg Mayor Johnnie DuPree is already making preparations.

“We are having a disaster preparedness summit on May 4 at the Lake Terrace Convention Center,” said Dupree. “All those responsible for the city’s operation will be discussing lessons learned from Katrina as well as plans for the ‘06 season - specifically medical matters, shelters, distribution of food water and ice, communications, first responders and evacuation.”

Dupree said the city is looking into buying large generators for critical facilities such as city hall, wastewater management cites, drinking water pumping stations and hospitals.

“You can’t over plan,” added DuPree. “During Katrina we learned to think of the unthinkable and try to plan for the worst it could be”

The city also hopes to establish a plan of cooperation between the city and local faith-based organizations, according to DuPree

“Local residents need to assess where they were last year during the storm,” said Dupree. “If you didn’t have a generator, you may need to invest in one, and you should be thinking about what to do about gasoline and non-perishable food and water.”

The idea of possibly going through a Katrina-level hurricane every year for the next decade alarms Hattiesburg small business owners like Bill Singleton. His business, Crystal Reef Aquariums, has been part of Hattiesburg for over 20 years, and his customers span several generations of residents.

“We had some serious losses after Katrina,” said Singleton. “It ripped a hole in the building, and the wind blew our front glass into the parking lot.”

Singleton said he lost all of his saltwater creatures and 50 percent of his freshwater.

“It’s not a good feeling to walk in your store and find tank after tank of dead fish.”

Singleton didn’t think anything bad was going to happen to his business. He called a friend in Gulfport who owns a similar store to suggest he move his livestock to Singleton’s store. After the storm, the friend’s store in Gulfport suffered less damage than Crystal Reef.

Singleton is worried about the coming season because it took him several months to get his business back on its feet, and he is still struggling to rebuild his saltwater collection.

“I suppose we could run a generator for a while, but this building is all metal, and without the air-conditioning it goes above 100 degrees in here - my fish won’t survive,” he said. “What can you do?”

Officials with the Mississippi Emergency Management Agency suggest everyone be more prepared this time around. Water, gasoline and food were in high demand and short supply after Katrina, while generators and chainsaws were quickly hard to find. With less than 30 days to prepare before this season officially begins, local residents might do well to slowly begin stocking up.

MEMA officials are already urging local families to develop and review a “Family Disaster Plan” prior to the 2006 hurricane season. They say the plan should include an evacuation strategy, a communication plan and a disaster supply kit which would include first-aid supplies along with important legal documents. Also on their list of necessities are flashlights with fresh batteries, sanitary items, can-openers, knives, radios and cash. This all comes as part of Mississippi's new “Stay Alert. Stay Alive.” hurricane preparedness campaign open to the public at the MEMA website.

“If you still have a blue tarp on your roof then you don’t need to stay at home; it may not be safe,” said Lea Stokes, a spokesperson for MEMA. “Remember, hotels and such are already filled up, so you need to plan now to go as far north as possible.”

Stokes added that MEMA is concerned about a direct hit because of the number of people still living in temporary trailers provided by FEMA.

“Those people are going to have to evacuate if a hurricane comes close to hitting the Coast,” said Stokes. “But a major storm would start the whole process over again. It would be a nightmare.”

James Edwards’ home was flooded and skewered by a neighbor's pine tree during Katrina. A lifetime resident of Hattiesburg, he was without power for a week and ran out of gas within the first two days because he didn't prepare and had little cash on hand. He says things will be different this time around.

“People around here have to realize that they live in a place were natural disasters are an annual threat,” said Edwards. “People in California stay prepared for earthquakes; people close to the Gulf Coast are just going to have to expect this kind of thing from now on.”

Cavanaugh has ordered a batch of topsoil to be delivered so she can fill in the pocks and scars the roofers left in her yard, but the decorative trees will not be coming back. She said it doesn't feel like enough time has passed for her neighborhood to start getting frightened again. Many of her friends have complained about mowing the yard and trimming hedges considering they expect everything to be covered with limbs and shingles in a few weeks.

“Until I get a feel for what the next few seasons are going to be like, I'm not going to replant my willow tree,” said Cavanaugh. “What's the use?”

David McRaney is a senior journalism major at the University of Southern Mississippi .  The After Katrina Newswire is a project of the School of Mass Communication and Journalism at USM (www.usm.edu/afterkatrina). This story can be reprinted with this credit included.